© 2014 Michael Parkatti faceoff3

The Influence of Face-offs and Zone Starts on Corsi

One of the most important pursuits in advanced hockey stats, in my opinion, is to put our numbers into context.  When looking at something like shot attempts, or Corsi, it is difficult to compare players against each other as there are many contextual factors that influence how that player will perform outside of the player’s control.  I’ve investigated this topic on a couple of occasions.  Others have done extensive work on the topic as well.

I’ve long contended that on-ice faceoff percentages have a large influence on Corsi.  However, there has never been an easy way to get our hands on this statistic, and I’m a lazy, lazy person.  Friend of the show Darryl Metcalf from ExtraSkater.com, however, has filled the breech with a fantastic new update of his site, including this very important new stat.

I say I’ve long thought that it’s had an influence, but what really piqued my attention was a post Tyler Dellow wrote with graphs showing average Corsi per second after faceoff wins and losses in various zones of play last year.  I can’t find the post now , but it had fantastic graphs showing just how wide a gap a player’s Corsi is after faceoff wins and losses in the end zones (*edit – Tyler has pointed me in the right direction, it’s available here).

So with this new availability of data, I wanted to test the influence of just faceoffs and zone starts to see how these two variables alone affect a player’s Corsi.

Using ExtraSkater, I took every player from the 2013-14 season playing in at least 41 games, forwards and defence — a dataset of 570 players.  I then proceeded to regress raw Corsi% against on-ice faceoff percentage and offensive end zone start percentage.  Here are the results:

faceoff1

The business end of this is the P-values in the last section — anything under 0.05 will pass a test for statistical significance, and both FO% and ZS% are way, way under this mark.

What’s interesting to me is that this model is saying a 1% increase in on-ice faceoff percentage actually has a larger impact on a player’s Corsi than a 1% increase in zone starts — 0.41% increase in Corsi vs a 0.34% increase in Corsi, respectively.  It’s obvious from this that a high faceoff winning percentage does greatly benefit a player’s shot attempt metrics.  Using just these 2 variables, we can predict 95% of players’ Corsi’s within about +/- 7%.

Of course, we can then adjust Corsi for each NHL player based on these metrics, calculate the residuals, and adjust a player’s Corsi to see what portion of his Corsi is not explained by them (after all, our model is only explaining about 36% of the variability in Corsi by the variabilities of FO% and ZS%.

Here’s a full list of NHL players from 2013-14 ranked by adjusted Corsi based on FO% and ZS%:

Rank Player Pos. Team(s) FO% ZS% CF% PredCF% AdjCF%
1 Brandon Bollig L Blackhawks 55.80% 18.30% 50.90% 41.30% 9.60%
2 Marcus Kruger C Blackhawks 55.40% 20.90% 51.40% 42.03% 9.37%
3 Anze Kopitar C Kings 53.10% 52.20% 61.00% 51.88% 9.12%
4 Patrice Bergeron C Bruins 59.00% 46.50% 61.20% 52.33% 8.87%
5 Andy Greene D Devils 46.50% 47.80% 56.30% 47.65% 8.65%
6 Jake Muzzin D Kings 50.70% 58.10% 61.10% 52.93% 8.17%
7 Alexander Steen L Blues 50.20% 49.20% 57.10% 49.65% 7.45%
8 Mark Giordano D Flames 46.10% 43.10% 53.30% 45.87% 7.43%
9 Justin Williams R Kings 53.90% 55.20% 60.60% 53.24% 7.36%
10 Joe Thornton C Sharks 55.30% 47.00% 58.30% 50.99% 7.31%
11 Mark Fayne D Devils 48.00% 47.60% 55.30% 48.20% 7.10%
12 Marc-Edouard Vlasic D Sharks 53.60% 49.40% 58.20% 51.12% 7.08%
13 Anton Volchenkov D Devils 45.70% 49.90% 55.00% 48.05% 6.95%
14 Stephen Gionta R Devils 40.70% 41.70% 49.90% 43.17% 6.73%
15 David Backes R Blues 50.60% 46.40% 55.50% 48.85% 6.65%
16 Ben Smith R Blackhawks 56.90% 26.20% 51.10% 44.47% 6.63%
17 Drew Doughty D Kings 51.90% 54.30% 58.50% 52.11% 6.39%
18 Anton Stralman D Rangers 50.40% 51.00% 56.50% 50.35% 6.15%
19 Tyler Toffoli C Kings 53.90% 58.30% 60.40% 54.31% 6.09%
20 Steve Bernier R Devils 43.90% 49.70% 53.00% 47.24% 5.76%
21 Travis Zajac C Devils 54.30% 53.30% 58.50% 52.75% 5.75%
22 Reilly Smith R Bruins 54.90% 52.70% 58.50% 52.79% 5.71%
23 TJ Brodie D Flames 47.20% 41.60% 51.50% 45.80% 5.70%
24 Dwight King L Kings 53.90% 54.10% 58.50% 52.86% 5.64%
25 Jaromir Jagr R Devils 53.00% 57.70% 59.20% 53.73% 5.47%
26 Patrik Elias L Devils 42.20% 57.40% 54.60% 49.20% 5.40%
27 Adam Henrique C Devils 43.00% 51.70% 52.90% 47.56% 5.34%
28 Dustin Brown L Kings 53.60% 53.60% 57.90% 52.56% 5.34%
29 Michael Ryder R Devils 45.10% 50.50% 53.30% 48.01% 5.29%
30 Justin Braun D Sharks 51.90% 45.10% 54.20% 48.94% 5.26%
31 Jaden Schwartz C Blues 51.80% 51.90% 56.50% 51.24% 5.26%
32 Brock Nelson C Islanders 46.20% 49.00% 53.20% 47.94% 5.26%
33 Brad Marchand C Bruins 57.10% 55.40% 59.80% 54.62% 5.18%
34 Michal Rozsival D Blackhawks 46.70% 65.00% 58.80% 53.66% 5.14%
35 Bryan Little C Jets 45.70% 49.10% 52.90% 47.77% 5.13%
36 Sean Bergenheim L Panthers 50.30% 50.10% 55.10% 50.00% 5.10%
37 Ryan Carter C Devils 43.80% 46.90% 51.30% 46.23% 5.07%
38 T.J. Oshie C Blues 50.60% 48.70% 54.50% 49.64% 4.86%
39 Chris Kreider C Rangers 45.60% 56.80% 55.20% 50.38% 4.82%
40 Mikael Backlund C Flames 45.90% 46.30% 51.70% 46.89% 4.81%
41 Joe Pavelski C Sharks 56.60% 47.30% 56.40% 51.62% 4.78%
42 Michael Frolik R Jets 44.80% 51.50% 53.00% 48.23% 4.77%
43 Marc Staal D Rangers 51.10% 48.20% 54.40% 49.68% 4.72%
44 Logan Couture C Sharks 50.60% 46.20% 53.50% 48.78% 4.72%
45 Derek Stepan C Rangers 44.40% 52.50% 53.10% 48.41% 4.69%
46 Brent Burns R Sharks 56.70% 49.60% 57.10% 52.46% 4.64%
47 Vladimir Tarasenko R Blues 49.60% 61.00% 58.10% 53.47% 4.63%
48 Nikita Kucherov R Lightning 47.90% 50.70% 53.80% 49.23% 4.57%
49 Dougie Hamilton D Bruins 52.70% 52.30% 56.30% 51.75% 4.55%
50 Dominic Moore C Rangers 56.00% 24.90% 48.20% 43.65% 4.55%
51 Rick Nash L Rangers 45.60% 54.70% 54.20% 49.66% 4.54%
52 Clarke MacArthur L Senators 50.10% 49.10% 54.10% 49.58% 4.52%
53 Josh Bailey C Islanders 48.40% 46.20% 52.40% 47.88% 4.52%
54 Brian Boyle C Rangers 53.60% 24.10% 46.90% 42.39% 4.51%
55 James Neal L Penguins 46.80% 57.00% 55.40% 50.95% 4.45%
56 Kimmo Timonen D Flyers 47.60% 55.00% 55.00% 50.58% 4.42%
57 Patrick Marleau C Sharks 50.20% 46.40% 53.10% 48.69% 4.41%
58 Kyle Chipchura C Coyotes 52.10% 39.80% 51.60% 47.19% 4.41%
59 Damien Brunner C Devils 40.20% 58.90% 53.30% 48.89% 4.41%
60 Andrew Ladd L Jets 45.80% 51.10% 52.90% 48.50% 4.40%
61 Mike Cammalleri L Flames 44.50% 46.80% 50.80% 46.49% 4.31%
62 Antoine Roussel L Stars 52.20% 41.50% 52.10% 47.82% 4.28%
63 Zdeno Chara D Bruins 53.90% 48.50% 55.20% 50.93% 4.27%
64 Jason Demers D Sharks 51.00% 51.20% 54.90% 50.67% 4.23%
65 Dainius Zubrus C Devils 49.10% 51.20% 54.10% 49.89% 4.21%
66 Jeff Carter C Kings 53.30% 54.10% 56.80% 52.61% 4.19%
67 Kyle Turris C Senators 49.20% 47.40% 52.80% 48.62% 4.18%
68 Calvin de Haan D Islanders 47.10% 48.30% 52.20% 48.07% 4.13%
69 Peter Regin C Blackhawks, Islanders 48.60% 47.70% 52.60% 48.48% 4.12%
70 Derek Dorsett R Rangers 54.90% 34.60% 50.50% 46.55% 3.95%
71 Tom Gilbert D Panthers 47.10% 47.50% 51.70% 47.79% 3.91%
72 Brian Campbell D Panthers 47.90% 49.60% 52.70% 48.85% 3.85%
73 Jesse Winchester C Panthers 50.30% 44.00% 51.70% 47.90% 3.80%
74 Daniel Sedin L Canucks 50.60% 58.90% 56.90% 53.16% 3.74%
75 Ryan Garbutt C Stars 50.10% 44.20% 51.60% 47.89% 3.71%
76 Johnny Boychuk D Bruins 52.70% 51.20% 55.00% 51.37% 3.63%
77 James Sheppard C Sharks 47.60% 50.10% 52.50% 48.90% 3.60%
78 Mike Santorelli C Canucks 49.00% 43.00% 50.60% 47.02% 3.58%
79 Ryan McDonagh D Rangers 46.30% 47.80% 51.10% 47.57% 3.53%
80 Benoit Pouliot L Rangers 47.50% 58.00% 55.10% 51.58% 3.52%
81 Nick Leddy D Blackhawks 48.20% 63.00% 57.10% 53.59% 3.51%
82 Scottie Upshall R Panthers 46.50% 49.70% 51.80% 48.31% 3.49%
83 Dmitry Orlov D Capitals 45.40% 49.60% 51.30% 47.82% 3.48%
84 Vladimir Sobotka C Blues 59.00% 49.20% 56.70% 53.26% 3.44%
85 Alex Pietrangelo D Blues 52.10% 52.20% 54.90% 51.47% 3.43%
86 Loui Eriksson L Bruins 53.50% 60.80% 58.40% 55.01% 3.39%
87 Brent Seabrook D Blackhawks 53.30% 56.50% 56.80% 53.44% 3.36%
88 Andrej Sustr D Lightning 46.20% 46.80% 50.50% 47.18% 3.32%
89 Jon Merrill D Devils 46.50% 55.50% 53.60% 50.31% 3.29%
90 J.T. Brown R Lightning 47.70% 48.90% 51.80% 48.52% 3.28%
91 David Booth L Canucks 51.90% 44.50% 52.00% 48.73% 3.27%
92 Blake Comeau L Blue Jackets 53.20% 46.00% 53.00% 49.78% 3.22%
93 James Wisniewski D Blue Jackets 52.20% 50.50% 54.10% 50.92% 3.18%
94 Brendan Smith D Red Wings 47.60% 55.40% 53.90% 50.72% 3.18%
95 Duncan Keith D Blackhawks 53.70% 56.00% 56.60% 53.43% 3.17%
96 Corey Perry R Ducks 49.00% 50.90% 52.90% 49.75% 3.15%
97 Tomas Kopecky R Panthers 50.20% 47.00% 52.00% 48.89% 3.11%
98 Gustav Nyquist C Red Wings 51.40% 52.90% 54.50% 51.42% 3.08%
99 David Schlemko D Coyotes 50.40% 51.20% 53.50% 50.42% 3.08%
100 Tommy Wingels C Sharks 49.60% 50.20% 52.80% 49.75% 3.05%
101 Chris Kelly C Bruins 50.40% 45.50% 51.50% 48.46% 3.04%
102 Patrick Maroon L Ducks 48.50% 55.60% 54.20% 51.16% 3.04%
103 Michael Grabner R Islanders 48.90% 45.30% 50.80% 47.77% 3.03%
104 Matt Niskanen D Penguins 52.20% 49.00% 53.40% 50.40% 3.00%
105 Henrik Zetterberg L Red Wings 50.80% 50.40% 53.30% 50.31% 2.99%
106 Mark Barberio D Lightning 48.00% 52.90% 53.00% 50.02% 2.98%
107 Kevin Shattenkirk D Blues 49.10% 57.70% 55.10% 52.13% 2.97%
108 Ryane Clowe L Devils 47.80% 49.80% 51.80% 48.87% 2.93%
109 Jonathan Huberdeau C Panthers 43.10% 53.10% 51.00% 48.08% 2.92%
110 Brandon Saad L Blackhawks 50.40% 63.90% 57.70% 54.80% 2.90%
111 Olli Jokinen C Jets 45.10% 45.70% 49.20% 46.35% 2.85%
112 Erik Karlsson D Senators 50.70% 55.40% 54.80% 51.99% 2.81%
113 Matt Read R Flyers 49.30% 42.90% 49.90% 47.11% 2.79%
114 Marian Gaborik R Blue Jackets, Kings 51.50% 52.80% 54.20% 51.43% 2.77%
115 Dan Girardi D Rangers 45.90% 47.00% 49.90% 47.13% 2.77%
116 Artem Anisimov C Blue Jackets 49.10% 45.30% 50.60% 47.86% 2.74%
117 Jay Bouwmeester D Blues 51.70% 51.50% 53.80% 51.06% 2.74%
118 Carl Soderberg C Bruins 45.30% 55.70% 52.60% 49.88% 2.72%
119 Tomas Tatar C Red Wings 50.20% 60.60% 56.30% 53.58% 2.72%
120 Shawn Matthias C Panthers, Canucks 44.60% 43.80% 48.20% 45.49% 2.71%
121 Evander Kane L Jets 45.10% 52.80% 51.50% 48.80% 2.70%
122 Dmitry Kulikov D Panthers 48.00% 48.50% 51.20% 48.51% 2.69%
123 Patrik Berglund C Blues 50.50% 55.70% 54.70% 52.02% 2.68%
124 Andrew Shaw C Blackhawks 45.70% 67.80% 56.90% 54.22% 2.68%
125 Brendan Gallagher R Canadiens 48.80% 49.90% 52.00% 49.32% 2.68%
126 Jussi Jokinen L Penguins 49.70% 57.00% 54.80% 52.14% 2.66%
127 Aleksander Barkov C Panthers 47.90% 51.70% 52.10% 49.57% 2.53%
128 Willie Mitchell D Kings 55.20% 52.90% 55.50% 52.98% 2.52%
129 Darren Helm C Red Wings 49.10% 52.40% 52.80% 50.30% 2.50%
130 Niklas Hjalmarsson D Blackhawks 53.10% 49.10% 53.30% 50.81% 2.49%
131 Teddy Purcell R Lightning 48.40% 55.60% 53.60% 51.12% 2.48%
132 Jordan Nolan C Kings 44.20% 59.20% 53.10% 50.64% 2.46%
133 Matt Donovan D Islanders 50.30% 54.00% 53.80% 51.35% 2.45%
134 Cody Eakin C Stars 48.10% 49.10% 51.20% 48.76% 2.44%
135 Sidney Crosby C Penguins 50.90% 51.00% 53.00% 50.56% 2.44%
136 Nick Foligno L Blue Jackets 48.70% 48.40% 51.20% 48.76% 2.44%
137 Pavel Datsyuk C Red Wings 51.40% 58.30% 55.70% 53.28% 2.42%
138 Jarret Stoll C Kings 56.50% 52.90% 55.90% 53.51% 2.39%
139 Jannik Hansen R Canucks 52.00% 46.40% 51.80% 49.43% 2.37%
140 Brandon Dubinsky C Blue Jackets 52.60% 46.90% 52.20% 49.84% 2.36%
141 Bryan Bickell L Blackhawks 48.10% 69.10% 58.00% 55.65% 2.35%
142 Adam Pardy D Jets 46.20% 58.90% 53.70% 51.35% 2.35%
143 Jonathan Toews C Blackhawks 56.00% 63.60% 59.30% 57.00% 2.30%
144 Scott Hartnell L Flyers 48.30% 58.30% 54.30% 52.01% 2.29%
145 Jeff Halpern C Coyotes 54.90% 34.80% 48.90% 46.62% 2.28%
146 Dustin Byfuglien D Jets 45.60% 50.30% 50.40% 48.14% 2.26%
147 Mats Zuccarello C Rangers 47.00% 58.60% 53.80% 51.58% 2.22%
148 Frans Nielsen C Islanders 49.70% 46.40% 50.70% 48.48% 2.22%
149 Riley Sheahan C Red Wings 47.40% 65.70% 56.40% 54.19% 2.21%
150 Johnny Oduya D Blackhawks 52.90% 49.30% 53.00% 50.79% 2.21%
151 Alex Goligoski D Stars 48.60% 48.10% 50.80% 48.62% 2.18%
152 Andrei Loktionov C Hurricanes, Devils 46.80% 62.80% 55.10% 52.95% 2.15%
153 Brad Richardson R Canucks 54.90% 32.30% 47.90% 45.75% 2.15%
154 Chris Phillips D Senators 52.20% 46.60% 51.70% 49.58% 2.12%
155 Nathan Gerbe C Hurricanes 53.20% 45.70% 51.80% 49.68% 2.12%
156 Tobias Enstrom D Jets 46.00% 50.80% 50.60% 48.48% 2.12%
157 Alexander Edler D Canucks 51.10% 50.00% 52.40% 50.30% 2.10%
158 Jakub Voracek R Flyers 51.00% 58.30% 55.20% 53.12% 2.08%
159 Rob Klinkhammer C Coyotes 53.40% 51.10% 53.70% 51.62% 2.08%
160 Paul Byron C Flames 47.30% 48.80% 50.40% 48.32% 2.08%
161 Zack Smith C Senators 52.70% 41.80% 50.20% 48.13% 2.07%
162 Slava Voynov D Kings 53.50% 54.80% 55.00% 52.94% 2.06%
163 Marian Hossa R Blackhawks 54.20% 62.10% 57.80% 55.74% 2.06%
164 Dylan Olsen D Panthers 45.20% 53.40% 51.10% 49.05% 2.05%
165 Marco Scandella D Wild 50.10% 43.00% 49.50% 47.47% 2.03%
166 Ryan Stanton D Canucks 52.10% 51.10% 53.10% 51.09% 2.01%
167 Matt Bartkowski D Bruins 50.00% 53.90% 53.20% 51.19% 2.01%
168 Matt Stajan C Flames 49.30% 38.50% 47.60% 45.59% 2.01%
169 Andrei Markov D Canadiens 49.80% 43.20% 49.40% 47.42% 1.98%
170 Cal Clutterbuck R Islanders 46.30% 45.70% 48.80% 46.84% 1.96%
171 Erik Gudbranson D Panthers 47.90% 50.80% 51.20% 49.26% 1.94%
172 Alec Martinez D Kings 55.40% 56.70% 56.30% 54.37% 1.93%
173 Ryan Getzlaf C Ducks 49.20% 49.00% 51.10% 49.17% 1.93%
174 Barret Jackman D Blues 52.10% 50.90% 52.90% 51.02% 1.88%
175 Eric Gryba D Senators 53.70% 43.20% 50.90% 49.02% 1.88%
176 Marcel Goc C Panthers, Penguins 55.40% 40.90% 50.80% 48.92% 1.88%
177 Dan Hamhuis D Canucks 53.30% 45.20% 51.40% 49.54% 1.86%
178 Christopher Tanev D Canucks 53.70% 44.20% 51.20% 49.36% 1.84%
179 Jordan Staal C Hurricanes 55.40% 50.30% 54.00% 52.16% 1.84%
180 Braydon Coburn D Flyers 49.20% 49.30% 51.10% 49.28% 1.82%
181 Chris Higgins L Canucks 54.30% 42.10% 50.70% 48.89% 1.81%
182 Colin Greening C Senators 51.40% 46.20% 50.90% 49.11% 1.79%
183 Valtteri Filppula C Lightning 50.30% 51.90% 52.40% 50.62% 1.78%
184 Eric Brewer D Lightning 47.10% 49.70% 50.30% 48.55% 1.75%
185 Trevor Daley D Stars 48.90% 49.30% 50.90% 49.15% 1.75%
186 David Krejci C Bruins 49.40% 53.70% 52.60% 50.88% 1.72%
187 Sean Couturier C Flyers 50.30% 42.50% 49.10% 47.38% 1.72%
188 Ryan Kesler C Canucks 54.50% 47.10% 52.40% 50.69% 1.71%
189 Jacob Trouba D Jets 45.50% 48.00% 49.00% 47.31% 1.69%
190 Jimmy Hayes R Blackhawks, Panthers 41.70% 48.20% 47.50% 45.82% 1.68%
191 Eric Tangradi L Jets 51.00% 55.50% 53.80% 52.15% 1.65%
192 Scott Gomez C Panthers 45.50% 46.40% 48.40% 46.76% 1.64%
193 Travis Hamonic D Islanders 47.40% 49.40% 50.20% 48.57% 1.63%
194 Chris Neil R Senators 52.00% 45.40% 50.70% 49.08% 1.62%
195 Victor Hedman D Lightning 51.50% 55.30% 53.90% 52.29% 1.61%
196 Bobby Ryan R Senators 47.80% 51.60% 51.10% 49.49% 1.61%
197 Marek Zidlicky D Devils 47.20% 58.70% 53.30% 51.70% 1.60%
198 Mike Green D Capitals 47.00% 54.30% 51.70% 50.10% 1.60%
199 Henrik Sedin C Canucks 52.30% 59.60% 55.70% 54.10% 1.60%
200 Nate Thompson C Lightning 52.80% 45.40% 51.00% 49.41% 1.59%
201 Tyler Johnson C Lightning 47.60% 51.60% 51.00% 49.41% 1.59%
202 Zack Kassian R Canucks 54.60% 43.00% 50.90% 49.32% 1.58%
203 Blake Wheeler R Jets 43.60% 53.20% 49.90% 48.32% 1.58%
204 Matt Calvert L Blue Jackets 53.60% 47.40% 52.00% 50.43% 1.57%
205 Sami Vatanen D Ducks 51.80% 53.70% 53.40% 51.86% 1.54%
206 Jarome Iginla R Bruins 48.80% 58.00% 53.60% 52.11% 1.49%
207 Chris Kunitz L Penguins 51.20% 51.10% 52.20% 50.72% 1.48%
208 TJ Galiardi L Flames 45.30% 50.30% 49.50% 48.02% 1.48%
209 P.K. Subban D Canadiens 49.40% 46.70% 49.90% 48.46% 1.44%
210 Brad Boyes R Panthers 48.90% 50.20% 50.90% 49.46% 1.44%
211 Matt Nieto L Sharks 50.90% 50.80% 51.90% 50.49% 1.41%
212 Mikko Koivu C Wild 53.10% 60.40% 56.10% 54.70% 1.40%
213 Mike Weaver D Panthers, Canadiens 49.70% 44.20% 49.10% 47.72% 1.38%
214 Tyler Seguin C Stars 46.40% 57.50% 52.30% 50.95% 1.35%
215 Zach Bogosian D Jets 45.30% 50.40% 49.40% 48.05% 1.35%
216 Yannick Weber D Canucks 49.20% 47.80% 50.10% 48.76% 1.34%
217 Robyn Regehr D Kings 53.50% 52.30% 53.40% 52.07% 1.33%
218 Niklas Kronwall D Red Wings 50.70% 51.30% 51.90% 50.58% 1.32%
219 Kevin Bieksa D Canucks 52.60% 48.00% 51.50% 50.22% 1.28%
220 Patrick Sharp R Blackhawks 52.60% 64.60% 57.20% 55.95% 1.25%
221 Mike Richards C Kings 52.40% 57.30% 54.60% 53.35% 1.25%
222 Mika Zibanejad C Senators 51.20% 56.50% 53.80% 52.58% 1.22%
223 Mark Stuart D Jets 44.30% 46.80% 47.60% 46.40% 1.20%
224 Tyler Kennedy C Sharks 53.60% 49.10% 52.20% 51.01% 1.19%
225 Thomas Hickey D Islanders 47.50% 51.80% 50.60% 49.44% 1.16%
226 Ryan Johansen C Blue Jackets 52.40% 45.70% 50.50% 49.35% 1.15%
227 Magnus Paajarvi L Blues 53.80% 51.60% 53.10% 51.96% 1.14%
228 Derick Brassard C Rangers 47.60% 60.20% 53.50% 52.38% 1.12%
229 Jamie Benn L Stars 46.90% 56.40% 51.90% 50.78% 1.12%
230 Jared Spurgeon D Wild 51.10% 52.30% 52.20% 51.09% 1.11%
231 Justin Faulk D Hurricanes 50.30% 52.10% 51.80% 50.69% 1.11%
232 Martin Erat R Coyotes, Capitals 48.10% 49.80% 50.10% 49.00% 1.10%
233 Brad Stuart D Sharks 51.30% 49.80% 51.40% 50.31% 1.09%
234 David Jones R Flames 48.30% 35.70% 45.30% 44.22% 1.08%
235 Marc Methot D Senators 51.60% 52.10% 52.30% 51.23% 1.07%
236 Brenden Dillon D Stars 51.40% 48.30% 50.90% 49.83% 1.07%
237 Kyle Clifford L Kings 52.10% 56.20% 53.90% 52.85% 1.05%
238 Dustin Penner R Ducks, Capitals 46.70% 49.30% 49.30% 48.25% 1.05%
239 Mark Scheifele C Jets 42.40% 52.40% 48.60% 47.55% 1.05%
240 Matt Cooke L Wild 49.60% 34.30% 45.30% 44.27% 1.03%
241 Evgeni Malkin C Penguins 47.20% 59.50% 53.00% 51.97% 1.03%
242 Sami Salo D Lightning 49.90% 53.40% 52.00% 50.98% 1.02%
243 Alexander Semin R Hurricanes 52.60% 59.50% 55.20% 54.19% 1.01%
244 Clayton Stoner D Wild 46.40% 44.60% 47.50% 46.51% 0.99%
245 Tomas Fleischmann L Panthers 49.30% 52.20% 51.30% 50.32% 0.98%
246 Alexandre Burrows L Canucks 53.70% 60.60% 56.00% 55.02% 0.98%
247 Claude Giroux R Flyers 52.10% 54.40% 53.20% 52.22% 0.98%
248 Patrick Wiercioch D Senators 51.90% 54.40% 53.10% 52.14% 0.96%
249 Nick Bjugstad C Panthers 47.50% 53.00% 50.80% 49.85% 0.95%
250 Tomas Plekanec C Canadiens 47.20% 38.20% 45.50% 44.63% 0.87%
251 Colin McDonald R Islanders 45.90% 44.70% 47.20% 46.34% 0.86%
252 Milan Lucic L Bruins 48.60% 60.10% 53.60% 52.75% 0.85%
253 Daniel Carcillo L Kings, Rangers 55.50% 43.00% 50.50% 49.69% 0.81%
254 Erik Condra R Senators 54.30% 53.80% 53.70% 52.92% 0.78%
255 Jakob Silfverberg R Ducks 51.40% 48.90% 50.80% 50.04% 0.76%
256 Andrej Sekera D Hurricanes 50.20% 52.40% 51.50% 50.76% 0.74%
257 Eric Gelinas D Devils 45.20% 63.00% 53.10% 52.36% 0.74%
258 Ondrej Palat L Lightning 47.60% 53.80% 50.90% 50.17% 0.73%
259 Alex Killorn C Lightning 50.90% 52.20% 51.70% 50.97% 0.73%
260 Trevor Lewis C Kings 52.30% 55.70% 53.40% 52.75% 0.65%
261 Paul Stastny C Avalanche 52.70% 46.00% 50.20% 49.57% 0.63%
262 Gabriel Bourque L Predators 51.60% 53.40% 52.30% 51.67% 0.63%
263 Jared Cowen D Senators 50.80% 50.30% 50.90% 50.28% 0.62%
264 Dan Boyle D Sharks 54.50% 52.20% 53.00% 52.45% 0.55%
265 Max Pacioretty L Canadiens 49.70% 53.90% 51.60% 51.07% 0.53%
266 Bryan Allen D Ducks 49.20% 49.40% 49.80% 49.31% 0.49%
267 Mark Pysyk D Sabres 46.00% 41.90% 45.90% 45.41% 0.49%
268 Jason Garrison D Canucks 50.60% 45.80% 49.10% 48.64% 0.46%
269 Joakim Andersson C Red Wings 50.80% 47.90% 49.90% 49.45% 0.45%
270 Zach Parise L Wild 51.80% 62.40% 55.30% 54.86% 0.44%
271 Joel Ward R Capitals 47.70% 44.40% 47.40% 46.97% 0.43%
272 Radim Vrbata R Coyotes 50.50% 52.40% 51.30% 50.88% 0.42%
273 Raphael Diaz D 3 teams 49.20% 49.40% 49.70% 49.31% 0.39%
274 Krys Barch R Panthers 39.00% 45.30% 44.10% 43.71% 0.39%
275 Matt Duchene C Avalanche 48.40% 49.20% 49.30% 48.91% 0.39%
276 Steve Downie R Avalanche, Flyers 48.80% 49.60% 49.60% 49.22% 0.38%
277 Cam Atkinson R Blue Jackets 52.60% 50.00% 51.20% 50.91% 0.29%
278 Patrick Dwyer R Hurricanes 52.60% 41.90% 48.40% 48.12% 0.28%
279 Carl Hagelin L Rangers 50.10% 62.60% 54.50% 54.23% 0.27%
280 Cam Fowler D Ducks 48.20% 49.50% 49.20% 48.93% 0.27%
281 Eric Fehr R Capitals 50.10% 46.80% 49.00% 48.78% 0.22%
282 PA Parenteau R Avalanche 48.20% 51.40% 49.80% 49.59% 0.21%
283 Olli Maatta D Penguins 50.60% 50.60% 50.50% 50.30% 0.20%
284 Scott Hannan D Sharks 50.10% 49.50% 49.90% 49.71% 0.19%
285 Gabriel Landeskog L Avalanche 51.10% 45.30% 48.80% 48.68% 0.12%
286 Drayson Bowman L Hurricanes 52.00% 34.70% 45.50% 45.39% 0.11%
287 Ryan Malone L Lightning 47.80% 54.00% 50.40% 50.32% 0.08%
288 Devin Setoguchi R Jets 47.60% 49.60% 48.80% 48.72% 0.08%
289 Martin St. Louis R Rangers, Lightning 46.10% 56.10% 50.40% 50.35% 0.05%
290 Keith Yandle D Coyotes 50.00% 53.80% 51.20% 51.16% 0.04%
291 Brooks Laich C Capitals 42.90% 53.00% 48.00% 47.97% 0.03%
292 Derek Morris D Coyotes 50.70% 50.10% 50.20% 50.17% 0.03%
293 Kris Versteeg R Blackhawks, Panthers 50.60% 61.90% 54.20% 54.19% 0.01%
294 Ryan Murray D Blue Jackets 52.20% 52.50% 51.60% 51.61% -0.01%
295 Nick Bonino C Ducks 49.00% 50.80% 49.70% 49.71% -0.01%
296 Mathieu Perreault C Ducks 51.70% 53.10% 51.60% 51.61% -0.01%
297 Jonathan Ericsson D Red Wings 52.40% 52.60% 51.70% 51.73% -0.03%
298 Drew Miller L Red Wings 50.40% 46.60% 48.80% 48.84% -0.04%
299 Boone Jenner C Blue Jackets 51.80% 49.00% 50.20% 50.24% -0.04%
300 Ben Lovejoy D Ducks 47.40% 48.50% 48.20% 48.26% -0.06%
301 Michael Raffl L Flyers 51.60% 56.30% 52.60% 52.67% -0.07%
302 Kyle Brodziak C Wild 49.50% 33.60% 43.90% 43.99% -0.09%
303 Torey Krug D Bruins 50.40% 65.90% 55.40% 55.49% -0.09%
304 Torrey Mitchell C Sabres, Wild 51.90% 35.70% 45.60% 45.69% -0.09%
305 David Desharnais C Canadiens 49.10% 52.70% 50.30% 50.41% -0.11%
306 Matt Carkner D Islanders 45.70% 54.50% 49.50% 49.63% -0.13%
307 Erik Haula L Wild 48.40% 48.10% 48.40% 48.53% -0.13%
308 Cody Ceci D Senators 51.10% 52.50% 51.00% 51.16% -0.16%
309 Brandon Pirri C Blackhawks, Panthers 43.90% 63.10% 51.70% 51.86% -0.16%
310 Fedor Tyutin D Blue Jackets 52.70% 44.80% 49.00% 49.16% -0.16%
311 Marcus Johansson C Capitals 44.90% 52.10% 48.30% 48.48% -0.18%
312 Justin Abdelkader L Red Wings 50.30% 52.70% 50.70% 50.90% -0.20%
313 Mark Streit D Flyers 50.20% 52.00% 50.40% 50.62% -0.22%
314 Travis Moen L Canadiens 48.50% 40.40% 45.70% 45.92% -0.22%
315 Matt D’Agostini R Sabres, Penguins 47.00% 46.60% 47.20% 47.44% -0.24%
316 Jordie Benn D Stars 52.80% 49.40% 50.50% 50.79% -0.29%
317 Brian Gibbons C Penguins 50.10% 54.10% 51.00% 51.30% -0.30%
318 Brian Gionta R Canadiens 49.10% 39.10% 45.40% 45.72% -0.32%
319 David Legwand C Red Wings, Predators 50.70% 49.10% 49.50% 49.82% -0.32%
320 Ales Hemsky R Oilers, Senators 52.30% 47.60% 49.60% 49.96% -0.36%
321 Teemu Selanne R Ducks 50.90% 55.10% 51.60% 51.97% -0.37%
322 David Moss R Coyotes 51.60% 56.30% 52.30% 52.67% -0.37%
323 Christian Ehrhoff D Sabres 46.30% 44.40% 46.00% 46.40% -0.40%
324 Ron Hainsey D Hurricanes 54.80% 48.80% 51.00% 51.40% -0.40%
325 Erik Johnson D Avalanche 49.60% 44.40% 47.30% 47.75% -0.45%
326 Boyd Gordon C Oilers 59.20% 17.90% 42.10% 42.55% -0.45%
327 Patric Hornqvist R Predators 52.40% 52.10% 51.10% 51.55% -0.45%
328 Jake Gardiner D Maple Leafs 48.90% 42.70% 46.40% 46.88% -0.48%
329 Mikhail Grabovski C Capitals 52.90% 51.30% 51.00% 51.48% -0.48%
330 Jack Johnson D Blue Jackets 51.50% 44.00% 47.90% 48.39% -0.49%
331 Ryan O’Reilly C Avalanche 49.20% 48.20% 48.40% 48.90% -0.50%
332 Roman Josi D Predators 53.40% 44.20% 48.70% 49.24% -0.54%
333 Patrick Kane R Blackhawks 47.70% 69.60% 55.10% 55.66% -0.56%
334 Matt Moulson L 3 teams 45.10% 48.10% 46.60% 47.18% -0.58%
335 Hampus Lindholm D Ducks 52.00% 53.00% 51.10% 51.70% -0.60%
336 Nate Prosser D Wild 48.70% 43.60% 46.50% 47.11% -0.61%
337 Tyson Barrie D Avalanche 47.40% 55.90% 50.20% 50.81% -0.61%
338 Jason Chimera L Capitals 48.90% 43.70% 46.60% 47.22% -0.62%
339 Mattias Ekholm D Predators 51.90% 50.40% 50.10% 50.76% -0.66%
340 Daniel Alfredsson R Red Wings 49.80% 56.40% 51.30% 51.97% -0.67%
341 Daniel Briere C Canadiens 50.30% 43.70% 47.10% 47.80% -0.70%
342 Johan Franzen C Red Wings 52.00% 53.60% 51.20% 51.91% -0.71%
343 Shane Doan R Coyotes 50.20% 54.90% 50.90% 51.62% -0.72%
344 Dalton Prout D Blue Jackets 51.30% 50.20% 49.70% 50.45% -0.75%
345 Craig Smith C Predators 51.50% 52.00% 50.40% 51.15% -0.75%
346 Nino Niederreiter R Wild 47.30% 56.80% 50.30% 51.08% -0.78%
347 Brayden Schenn C Flyers 42.90% 55.20% 47.90% 48.73% -0.83%
348 Jason Spezza C Senators 53.90% 54.90% 52.30% 53.14% -0.84%
349 Radko Gudas D Lightning 48.60% 52.00% 49.10% 49.96% -0.86%
350 Troy Brouwer R Capitals 48.90% 47.90% 47.80% 48.67% -0.87%
351 Justin Fontaine R Wild 49.50% 42.00% 46.00% 46.88% -0.88%
352 Brad Richards C Rangers 48.70% 66.50% 54.10% 55.00% -0.90%
353 Lars Eller C Canadiens 53.50% 43.70% 48.20% 49.11% -0.91%
354 Vernon Fiddler L Stars 54.50% 42.30% 48.10% 49.04% -0.94%
355 Andrew Cogliano C Ducks 49.60% 48.50% 48.20% 49.16% -0.96%
356 Wayne Simmonds R Flyers 43.80% 56.30% 48.50% 49.47% -0.97%
357 Daniel Winnik C Ducks 49.40% 48.20% 48.00% 48.98% -0.98%
358 Jakub Kindl D Red Wings 50.20% 57.70% 51.60% 52.58% -0.98%
359 Kyle Quincey D Red Wings 50.10% 52.40% 49.70% 50.71% -1.01%
360 Martin Marincin D Oilers 50.90% 45.10% 47.50% 48.53% -1.03%
361 Tuomo Ruutu R Hurricanes, Devils 50.20% 59.90% 52.30% 53.34% -1.04%
362 Valeri Nichushkin R Stars 51.40% 54.20% 50.80% 51.87% -1.07%
363 Roman Polak D Blues 54.60% 46.50% 49.40% 50.53% -1.13%
364 Zemgus Girgensons C Sabres 42.90% 46.80% 44.70% 45.83% -1.13%
365 Lee Stempniak R Flames, Penguins 50.10% 46.40% 47.50% 48.65% -1.15%
366 Matt Cullen C Predators 56.50% 47.50% 50.50% 51.65% -1.15%
367 Tyler Myers D Sabres 47.70% 40.70% 44.50% 45.70% -1.20%
368 Jeff Petry D Oilers 51.40% 42.70% 46.70% 47.90% -1.20%
369 Matt Frattin R Blue Jackets, Kings 54.20% 57.10% 52.80% 54.02% -1.22%
370 Martin Hanzal C Coyotes 53.70% 49.60% 50.00% 51.23% -1.23%
371 Zbynek Michalek D Coyotes 54.50% 46.10% 49.10% 50.35% -1.25%
372 Nikita Nikitin D Blue Jackets 52.20% 49.20% 49.20% 50.47% -1.27%
373 Riley Nash C Hurricanes 46.80% 59.70% 50.60% 51.88% -1.28%
374 Zac Dalpe C Canucks 47.70% 41.60% 44.70% 46.01% -1.31%
375 Alex Chiasson R Stars 47.90% 55.30% 49.50% 50.81% -1.31%
376 Nicklas Grossmann D Flyers 50.20% 45.90% 47.20% 48.51% -1.31%
377 Rene Bourque R Canadiens 48.70% 42.20% 45.30% 46.62% -1.32%
378 Jason Pominville R Wild 52.10% 60.60% 53.00% 54.36% -1.36%
379 Nazem Kadri C Maple Leafs 43.50% 48.60% 45.30% 46.70% -1.40%
380 Lance Bouma L Flames 47.10% 39.10% 43.50% 44.90% -1.40%
381 Cody Franson D Maple Leafs 49.30% 40.60% 44.90% 46.32% -1.42%
382 Brett Bellemore D Hurricanes 55.40% 43.50% 48.40% 49.82% -1.42%
383 Sheldon Brookbank D Blackhawks 48.30% 61.30% 51.60% 53.04% -1.44%
384 Francois Beauchemin D Ducks 51.30% 50.80% 49.20% 50.65% -1.45%
385 Adam Hall R Flyers 57.90% 27.90% 44.00% 45.47% -1.47%
386 Shea Weber D Predators 53.80% 44.40% 48.00% 49.47% -1.47%
387 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D Coyotes 53.00% 48.90% 49.20% 50.70% -1.50%
388 Keith Ballard D Wild 49.60% 43.40% 45.90% 47.41% -1.51%
389 Keaton Ellerby D Jets 46.00% 53.80% 48.00% 49.51% -1.51%
390 Matt Irwin D Sharks 54.00% 50.70% 50.20% 51.73% -1.53%
391 Michael Del Zotto D Predators, Rangers 49.80% 56.60% 50.50% 52.04% -1.54%
392 Paul Gaustad C Predators 59.10% 28.30% 44.50% 46.10% -1.60%
393 Mason Raymond L Maple Leafs 45.30% 43.90% 44.20% 45.81% -1.61%
394 Viktor Stalberg L Predators 52.50% 48.80% 48.80% 50.46% -1.66%
395 Ryan Smyth L Oilers 55.10% 35.70% 45.30% 47.01% -1.71%
396 Nathan MacKinnon C Avalanche 46.40% 50.70% 46.90% 48.61% -1.71%
397 Ryan Ellis D Predators 52.60% 53.20% 50.30% 52.02% -1.72%
398 Antoine Vermette C Coyotes 55.80% 44.00% 48.40% 50.16% -1.76%
399 John-Michael Liles D Hurricanes, Maple Leafs 53.00% 50.60% 49.50% 51.28% -1.78%
400 Seth Jones D Predators 52.90% 50.90% 49.50% 51.35% -1.85%
401 Ray Whitney L Stars 49.90% 56.80% 50.30% 52.15% -1.85%
402 Cory Conacher C Sabres, Senators 50.30% 54.30% 49.60% 51.45% -1.85%
403 Tyler Ennis C Sabres 42.70% 46.90% 43.90% 45.78% -1.88%
404 John Mitchell C Avalanche 50.10% 43.90% 45.90% 47.78% -1.88%
405 Kyle Palmieri C Ducks 49.40% 51.60% 48.20% 50.15% -1.95%
406 Mike Ribeiro C Coyotes 44.50% 71.10% 52.90% 54.86% -1.96%
407 Matt Beleskey L Ducks 50.80% 52.90% 49.20% 51.17% -1.97%
408 Matt Martin L Islanders 46.80% 45.20% 44.90% 46.88% -1.98%
409 Phil Kessel C Maple Leafs 46.80% 42.90% 44.10% 46.08% -1.98%
410 Milan Michalek L Senators 54.00% 57.00% 51.90% 53.90% -2.00%
411 B.J. Crombeen R Lightning 53.20% 48.00% 48.40% 50.47% -2.07%
412 Michael Stone D Coyotes 50.50% 55.30% 49.80% 51.88% -2.08%
413 Erik Cole L Stars 51.70% 52.50% 49.30% 51.41% -2.11%
414 Jesse Joensuu L Oilers 55.70% 31.80% 43.80% 45.91% -2.11%
415 Todd Bertuzzi R Red Wings 51.30% 53.60% 49.50% 51.62% -2.12%
416 Mark Letestu C Blue Jackets 54.10% 49.00% 49.00% 51.18% -2.18%
417 Ryan Jones L Oilers 51.80% 32.60% 42.40% 44.59% -2.19%
418 Matthew Carle D Lightning 50.40% 50.00% 47.80% 50.01% -2.21%
419 Saku Koivu C Ducks 50.70% 45.30% 46.30% 48.51% -2.21%
420 Alex Ovechkin L Capitals 46.40% 59.30% 49.30% 51.57% -2.27%
421 Nick Holden D Avalanche 51.00% 50.10% 48.00% 50.29% -2.29%
422 John Moore D Rangers 48.60% 63.40% 51.60% 53.89% -2.29%
423 Danny DeKeyser D Red Wings 52.10% 51.70% 49.00% 51.29% -2.29%
424 James van Riemsdyk L Maple Leafs 45.80% 45.30% 44.20% 46.50% -2.30%
425 Alexei Emelin D Canadiens 50.60% 40.20% 44.40% 46.71% -2.31%
426 Mark Arcobello R Oilers 54.10% 46.90% 48.10% 50.46% -2.36%
427 Andrew Desjardins C Sharks 54.20% 52.30% 50.00% 52.36% -2.36%
428 Ian Cole D Blues 53.70% 50.00% 49.00% 51.36% -2.36%
429 Alex Galchenyuk C Canadiens 49.90% 49.90% 47.40% 49.77% -2.37%
430 Colin Wilson C Predators 49.00% 54.20% 48.50% 50.88% -2.38%
431 Karl Alzner D Capitals 48.30% 50.70% 47.00% 49.39% -2.39%
432 Manny Malhotra C Hurricanes 59.70% 20.90% 41.40% 43.79% -2.39%
433 Mike Fisher C Predators 52.10% 44.50% 46.40% 48.81% -2.41%
434 Marty Havlat R Sharks 49.80% 58.60% 50.30% 52.73% -2.43%
435 Jamie McGinn L Avalanche 47.60% 51.70% 47.00% 49.45% -2.45%
436 Derek MacKenzie C Blue Jackets 55.40% 49.00% 49.20% 51.72% -2.52%
437 David Clarkson R Maple Leafs 49.80% 36.00% 42.40% 44.94% -2.54%
438 Mikkel Boedker L Coyotes 53.00% 49.90% 48.50% 51.04% -2.54%
439 Charlie Coyle C Wild 48.50% 56.50% 48.90% 51.47% -2.57%
440 Nicklas Backstrom C Capitals 48.70% 57.20% 49.20% 51.79% -2.59%
441 Michal Handzus C Blackhawks 51.30% 61.70% 51.80% 54.41% -2.61%
442 Dale Weise R Canadiens, Canucks 50.00% 41.50% 44.30% 46.92% -2.62%
443 Eric Staal C Hurricanes 51.60% 63.10% 52.40% 55.02% -2.62%
444 Daniel Paille L Bruins 49.20% 53.20% 48.00% 50.62% -2.62%
445 Anton Belov D Oilers 50.20% 47.10% 46.30% 48.93% -2.63%
446 Josh Gorges D Canadiens 51.40% 42.60% 45.20% 47.87% -2.67%
447 Michael Bournival L Canadiens 47.90% 43.30% 44.00% 46.67% -2.67%
448 Derek Roy C Blues 50.80% 63.20% 52.00% 54.73% -2.73%
449 Ville Leino L Sabres 45.70% 44.70% 43.50% 46.25% -2.75%
450 Jan Hejda D Avalanche 49.10% 43.90% 44.60% 47.37% -2.77%
451 Tom Sestito L Canucks 50.20% 42.60% 44.60% 47.38% -2.78%
452 Cory Sarich D Avalanche 51.20% 50.90% 47.80% 50.65% -2.85%
453 David Savard D Blue Jackets 53.90% 47.40% 47.70% 50.55% -2.85%
454 Brian Lashoff D Red Wings 50.90% 58.90% 50.40% 53.28% -2.88%
455 Matt Ellis L Sabres 48.20% 40.80% 43.00% 45.94% -2.94%
456 Troy Bodie R Maple Leafs 45.10% 44.50% 43.00% 45.94% -2.94%
457 Tyler Bozak C Maple Leafs 49.00% 39.60% 42.90% 45.85% -2.95%
458 John Carlson D Capitals 49.30% 50.90% 46.90% 49.87% -2.97%
459 Jiri Tlusty C Hurricanes 52.90% 59.10% 51.20% 54.17% -2.97%
460 Radek Dvorak R Hurricanes 55.30% 31.70% 42.70% 45.71% -3.01%
461 Chris Butler D Flames 46.90% 42.10% 42.80% 45.85% -3.05%
462 Kyle Okposo R Islanders 48.50% 61.10% 50.00% 53.06% -3.06%
463 Brooks Orpik D Penguins 52.10% 45.80% 46.20% 49.26% -3.06%
464 James Wright C Jets 49.40% 53.40% 47.70% 50.77% -3.07%
465 Rich Clune L Predators 57.10% 42.50% 47.10% 50.17% -3.07%
466 Jiri Hudler C Flames 45.30% 55.40% 46.70% 49.78% -3.08%
467 Robert Bortuzzo D Penguins 47.60% 49.00% 45.40% 48.52% -3.12%
468 RJ Umberger C Blue Jackets 52.40% 46.20% 46.40% 49.52% -3.12%
469 Sergei Gonchar D Stars 49.00% 57.30% 48.80% 51.95% -3.15%
470 Francis Bouillon D Canadiens 45.70% 46.80% 43.80% 46.98% -3.18%
471 Eric Nystrom L Predators 51.00% 47.20% 46.10% 49.29% -3.19%
472 Rich Peverley C Stars 55.50% 52.00% 49.60% 52.79% -3.19%
473 Kevan Miller D Bruins 50.70% 62.10% 51.10% 54.30% -3.20%
474 Andrej Meszaros D Bruins, Flyers 48.60% 56.20% 48.20% 51.41% -3.21%
475 Joffrey Lupul R Maple Leafs 47.50% 41.00% 42.50% 45.72% -3.22%
476 Andre Benoit D Avalanche 51.30% 48.60% 46.60% 49.90% -3.30%
477 Paul Ranger D Maple Leafs 48.30% 39.70% 42.30% 45.60% -3.30%
478 Casey Cizikas C Islanders 50.40% 44.90% 44.90% 48.25% -3.35%
479 Morgan Rielly D Maple Leafs 47.10% 47.70% 44.50% 47.86% -3.36%
480 Ryan Callahan R Rangers, Lightning 51.30% 60.80% 50.70% 54.10% -3.40%
481 Ryan Suter D Wild 51.70% 54.30% 48.60% 52.03% -3.43%
482 Nikolai Kulemin L Maple Leafs 50.50% 34.60% 41.30% 44.74% -3.44%
483 Mikael Granlund C Wild 52.30% 53.10% 48.40% 51.86% -3.46%
484 Luke Schenn D Flyers 49.40% 54.80% 47.70% 51.25% -3.55%
485 Joe Colborne C Flames 47.40% 50.60% 45.40% 48.99% -3.59%
486 Cody Hodgson C Sabres 48.40% 41.00% 42.50% 46.09% -3.59%
487 David Perron L Oilers 49.90% 48.50% 45.70% 49.29% -3.59%
488 Maxime Talbot C Avalanche, Flyers 49.10% 46.30% 44.60% 48.20% -3.60%
489 Marcus Foligno L Sabres 47.70% 43.20% 42.90% 46.56% -3.66%
490 Deryk Engelland D Penguins 47.90% 46.10% 43.80% 47.64% -3.84%
491 Zenon Konopka C Sabres, Wild 62.20% 26.80% 43.00% 46.85% -3.85%
492 Gregory Campbell C Bruins 49.30% 49.80% 45.60% 49.49% -3.89%
493 Mark Fraser D Oilers, Maple Leafs 47.90% 41.90% 42.30% 46.19% -3.89%
494 Jordan Eberle C Oilers 46.50% 55.20% 46.30% 50.20% -3.90%
495 Drew Stafford R Sabres 46.40% 45.20% 42.80% 46.71% -3.91%
496 Maxim Lapierre C Blues 54.40% 41.80% 44.90% 48.82% -3.92%
497 Tim Gleason D Hurricanes, Maple Leafs 49.60% 39.80% 42.20% 46.16% -3.96%
498 Daniel Cleary R Red Wings 51.40% 52.50% 47.30% 51.28% -3.98%
499 Jonas Brodin D Wild 52.10% 50.90% 47.00% 51.02% -4.02%
500 Richard Panik R Lightning 53.60% 52.90% 48.30% 52.32% -4.02%
501 Luke Glendening C Red Wings 50.10% 51.00% 46.20% 50.23% -4.03%
502 John Tavares C Islanders 49.70% 61.80% 49.70% 53.79% -4.09%
503 Brandon Sutter C Penguins 49.90% 41.90% 42.90% 47.01% -4.11%
504 Brenden Morrow L Blues 49.80% 58.30% 48.50% 52.63% -4.13%
505 Jamie McBain D Sabres 45.10% 41.80% 40.80% 45.01% -4.21%
506 Shawn Horcoff C Stars 55.60% 52.80% 48.90% 53.11% -4.21%
507 Dion Phaneuf D Maple Leafs 48.90% 37.60% 40.80% 45.12% -4.32%
508 Zac Rinaldo C Flyers 54.40% 47.40% 46.40% 50.75% -4.35%
509 Peter Holland C Ducks, Maple Leafs 47.00% 46.80% 43.00% 47.51% -4.51%
510 Jeff Skinner C Hurricanes 50.20% 67.00% 51.20% 55.79% -4.59%
511 Jay Harrison D Hurricanes 52.70% 54.50% 47.90% 52.51% -4.61%
512 Andrew MacDonald D Islanders, Flyers 50.10% 47.80% 44.50% 49.13% -4.63%
513 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C Oilers 42.50% 58.10% 44.90% 49.56% -4.66%
514 Mike Weber D Sabres 44.00% 43.30% 40.40% 45.07% -4.67%
515 Matt Halischuk R Jets 43.80% 55.50% 44.50% 49.20% -4.70%
516 Brandon Prust L Canadiens 49.90% 41.60% 42.20% 46.91% -4.71%
517 Matt Hendricks C Oilers, Predators 60.60% 27.70% 41.60% 46.51% -4.91%
518 Carl Gunnarsson D Maple Leafs 47.90% 38.50% 40.10% 45.02% -4.92%
519 Corey Tropp R Sabres, Blue Jackets 51.10% 52.80% 46.30% 51.26% -4.96%
520 Tom Wilson R Capitals 47.60% 53.30% 45.00% 50.00% -5.00%
521 Andrew Ference D Oilers 48.80% 45.90% 42.90% 47.94% -5.04%
522 Brian Strait D Islanders 49.70% 49.00% 44.30% 49.38% -5.08%
523 Henrik Tallinder D Sabres 47.60% 46.30% 42.50% 47.59% -5.09%
524 Kevin Klein D Predators, Rangers 53.30% 51.20% 46.50% 51.61% -5.11%
525 Jay McClement C Maple Leafs 53.70% 28.20% 38.70% 43.85% -5.15%
526 Elias Lindholm C Hurricanes 51.30% 62.70% 49.60% 54.76% -5.16%
527 Chris Stewart R Sabres, Blues 49.30% 59.00% 47.50% 52.66% -5.16%
528 Ryan Murphy D Hurricanes 50.20% 61.70% 48.80% 53.96% -5.16%
529 Justin Schultz D Oilers 49.80% 45.20% 42.90% 48.11% -5.21%
530 Kris Russell D Flames 46.10% 51.40% 43.50% 48.73% -5.23%
531 Jay Beagle C Capitals 51.30% 49.00% 44.80% 50.03% -5.23%
532 Victor Bartley D Predators 52.80% 46.80% 44.50% 49.89% -5.39%
533 Dennis Wideman D Flames 44.10% 61.40% 45.90% 51.36% -5.46%
534 Ryan White C Canadiens 51.00% 29.10% 37.50% 43.05% -5.55%
535 Brian Flynn C Sabres 47.50% 45.30% 41.60% 47.20% -5.60%
536 Sean Monahan C Flames 45.10% 54.60% 43.80% 49.42% -5.62%
537 Ladislav Smid D Flames, Oilers 48.00% 44.80% 41.60% 47.23% -5.63%
538 Joe Vitale C Penguins 57.10% 41.90% 44.30% 49.97% -5.67%
539 Steve Ott C Sabres, Blues 52.90% 47.60% 44.50% 50.21% -5.71%
540 Dany Heatley L Wild 47.80% 53.90% 44.50% 50.29% -5.79%
541 Taylor Pyatt L Rangers, Penguins 52.80% 42.00% 42.40% 48.24% -5.84%
542 Vincent Lecavalier C Flyers 47.30% 57.00% 45.30% 51.15% -5.85%
543 Cody McCormick C Sabres, Wild 46.50% 36.20% 37.80% 43.65% -5.85%
544 Nate Guenin D Avalanche 45.40% 57.00% 44.50% 50.37% -5.87%
545 Taylor Hall L Oilers 45.60% 56.60% 44.40% 50.32% -5.92%
546 Sam Gagner C Oilers 46.40% 55.10% 44.20% 50.13% -5.93%
547 Chris Thorburn R Jets 49.30% 49.10% 43.30% 49.25% -5.95%
548 Thomas Vanek L 3 teams 50.40% 58.80% 47.00% 53.04% -6.04%
549 Lauri Korpikoski L Coyotes 55.50% 51.00% 46.40% 52.45% -6.05%
550 Nick Schultz D Blue Jackets, Oilers 50.50% 43.70% 41.80% 47.88% -6.08%
551 Rob Scuderi D Penguins 50.30% 50.10% 43.90% 50.00% -6.10%
552 Ryan Reaves R Blues 53.40% 52.40% 45.90% 52.07% -6.17%
553 Craig Adams R Penguins 52.30% 39.20% 40.80% 47.07% -6.27%
554 Nick Spaling C Predators 54.20% 50.30% 45.30% 51.67% -6.37%
555 Cody McLeod L Avalanche 47.40% 49.30% 42.00% 48.54% -6.54%
556 Mike Brown R Oilers, Sharks 54.40% 52.90% 46.10% 52.65% -6.55%
557 Douglas Murray D Canadiens 45.40% 50.40% 41.40% 48.10% -6.70%
558 Shane O’Brien D Flames 48.60% 54.30% 44.00% 50.75% -6.75%
559 Tanner Glass L Penguins 51.60% 37.60% 39.30% 46.23% -6.93%
560 John Scott L Sabres 45.90% 46.20% 39.90% 46.85% -6.95%
561 Shawn Thornton L Bruins 49.30% 65.70% 47.70% 54.97% -7.27%
562 Anthony Peluso R Jets 53.20% 55.40% 45.60% 53.02% -7.42%
563 Nail Yakupov R Oilers 44.60% 63.70% 44.90% 52.35% -7.45%
564 Kevin Westgarth R Flames, Hurricanes 48.30% 57.10% 42.70% 51.60% -8.90%
565 Marc-Andre Cliche R Avalanche 49.40% 52.60% 41.10% 50.50% -9.40%
566 Patrick Bordeleau L Avalanche 48.40% 57.20% 42.00% 51.67% -9.67%
567 Brian McGrattan R Flames 44.30% 57.30% 38.40% 50.02% -11.62%
568 Luke Gazdic L Oilers 45.50% 52.50% 36.80% 48.86% -12.06%
569 Aaron Volpatti L Capitals 52.20% 52.60% 39.50% 51.64% -12.14%
570 Colton Orr R Maple Leafs 58.50% 46.20% 39.10% 52.02% -12.92%

4 Comments

  1. Posted May 5, 2014 at 10:25 am | #

    Nice stuff-have you seen the work that Steve Burtch over at PPP has done on dCorsi? Similar method, although your inclusion of FO% is really interesting, especially given how large of an effect it seems to have.

    One thing I’d caution is that I believe Extra Skater’s zone start numbers are raw faceoff numbers and not pure “zone-starts” which might skew your numbers a bit (i.e. good possession players will end up with more OZ Starts because they put the puck on their opponent’s net more where it ends up being frozen for an OZ draw). I believe this is a general issue with all the advanced stats sites though, I think that Hockey Analysis and BTN calculate it the same way.

  2. Posted May 5, 2014 at 3:43 pm | #

    There are some fundamental problems with your analysis.

    1. Generally players that get more offensive zone starts are better offensive players and those that get more defensive zone starts and thus are better at (and put more focus on) generating offensive opportunities that those that start in the defensive zone. Thus they are better at driving the ‘corsi for’portion of CF%. A (significant) portion of the correlation you see is due to that.

    2. Good teams get more offensive zone starts, bad teams get more defensive zone starts. Good teams have better corsi ratings than bad teams. Thus, it can be expected that there is a correlation between corsi and zone starts that have nothing to do with the zone start themselves (i.e. is corsi driving zone starts rather than zone starts driving corsi?). Try grabbing team zone start data and do your correlation and see what you come up with.

    Do zone starts matter? Yes, but only a very tiny bit. I have written a number of articles on this topic and have found no evidence that zone starts matter much for the majority of players.

    • Liz
      Posted May 6, 2014 at 2:36 pm | #

      Your first point underlines the fact that Quenneville has been doing something pretty odd with Kruger et al. (The kid’s always been a positive possession player, but this year’s zone starts are crazy).

  3. GCW
    Posted May 6, 2014 at 6:47 pm | #

    While these May be statistically significant, the low r squared and r squared adjusted indicate that these two variables alone don’t predict much of the variability. Makes me wonder what other factors you would need to include to get something in the 80% range?

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  1. [...] • The influence of faceoffs and zone starts on corsi. [Boys on the Bus] [...]

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